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Asteroid Apophis Could Break Apart During Earth Flyby in 2029
In 2029, the asteroid Apophis—also known as the “God of Chaos”—will pass by Earth at an unprecedentedly close distance, potentially undergoing significant transformations as a result.
A new study by scientists from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory suggests that Earth’s gravitational forces could cause tremors and landslides on Apophis, altering its appearance. This research, currently available on the preprint server arXiv, is pending publication in The Planetary Science Journal.
Apophis, a 340-meter-long, peanut-shaped asteroid, was discovered in 2004, and its trajectory has been closely monitored since. In 2021, astronomers recalculated its orbit and significantly reduced the probability of a collision with Earth.
Apophis is set to approach Earth on April 13, 2029, at a distance of just 32,000 kilometers—closer than some artificial satellites.
While this proximity poses no threat to Earth, scientists are curious about how Apophis itself might be affected. Johns Hopkins astronomer Ronald-Louis Ballouz explains that asteroids passing near planets often exhibit little evidence of space weathering. This could be due to gravitational forces exposing deeper, unweathered layers of the asteroid’s surface.
To investigate, researchers created computer models of Apophis based on data from other asteroids. These simulations suggest that two primary processes may occur during its flyby: seismic vibrations and rotational changes.
Vibrations could begin an hour before Apophis reaches its closest point to Earth, persisting afterward. These tremors might lift boulders from the surface, forming distinct patterns visible to spacecraft.
Additionally, rotational changes could destabilize Apophis’s surface, triggering landslides. These processes, Ballouz notes, could shed light on how close planetary encounters affect small celestial bodies.
Astronomers eagerly await NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission, which is expected to validate these theories. This repurposed spacecraft will study Apophis for 18 months, gathering data on its composition and surface characteristics.
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