The long nightmare of the Assad family dictatorship has come to a sudden end. Hafez al-Assad seized power in Damascus in a 1970 coup, and now, 54 years later, his son Bashar has fled to Moscow for refuge. Scenes of celebration across Syria testify to widespread hostility toward the regime and collective elation at its collapse. What sort of governance will emerge in Damascus remains unclear. Ideally, a constitutional process and elections could lead to a legitimate and effective administration capable of addressing the misery the Assads bequeathed to their long-suffering country. Alternatively, civil conflict and sectarian strife might ensue, or Syria could become a battlefield for regional powers like Turkey and Iran. Instability in Syria can rapidly escalate into a regional and international security challenge — but also a set of opportunities. (RELATED: Approach Syria With a Tragic Mind) Impact on Russia One of the biggest losers in this dramatic turn of events is Russia. Syria served as Moscow’s gateway back into the Middle East after it lost its connection to Egypt in the 1970s. Syria became a de facto client state, hosting Russia’s naval facility at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Although the significance of Tartus waned after the Cold War, its importance surged during Syria’s civil war, especially after 2013, when President Obama failed to enforce his “red line” threat. At that juncture, Moscow emerged as Damascus’s chief supporter. However, preoccupied now with its costly war in Ukraine, Russia could not come to Assad’s aid. Russia has not only lost a client but has also signaled to the world that it is willing to abandon allies. Memo to BRICS countries: Don’t count on Putin to save your skin. Any Russian loss is a potential gain for the West. Washington should seize this opportunity to maximize Russia’s defeat, potentially ending its Mediterranean presence altogether. Unfortunately, the Biden administration appears unprepared, as surprised by the fall of Damascus as it was by last year’s Hamas attack. What is lacking is an American strategy to capitalize on Russia’s loss. Impact on Iran The other major loser is Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, which served as Assad’s co-patrons. Like Russia, they failed to come to his rescue. Hezbollah had already been significantly weakened by Israeli strikes, while Iran faced its own domestic legitimacy crisis. The inability to shape developments in Syria exposes the so-called “axis of resistance” as ineffective. This moment demands a decisive American strategy to address Iran: stricter, effective sanctions coupled with back-channel diplomacy offering reconciliation, contingent on Tehran accepting longstanding U.S. goals — ending its nuclear ambitions and terminating regional destabilization activities. The collapse of the Assad regime is a profound blow to Iran’s regional strategy. This is a pivotal moment for clear-eyed diplomacy to reshape the Middle East. Washington must not squander this opportunity, though the current administration’s track record suggests it might. History calls for bold leadership. Jan. 20 cannot come soon enough. Impact on the Middle East and Europe There is, of course, a risk that victorious forces in Syria may take an Islamist turn, leading to a new catastrophe akin to the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan. This worst-case scenario could destabilize Iraq and Jordan and threaten Israel’s border. While this outcome cannot be ruled out, it is not inevitable: Syria is not Afghanistan, and its revolution need not take an Islamist direction. Another consequence could ripple further afield, potentially impacting Western political cohesion. With the end of Assad’s brutal dictatorship, the legal basis for many Syrian refugees to claim asylum in Europe has evaporated, prompting calls for their return. Anti-immigration parties such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France’s Rassemblement National will likely intensify demands for large-scale repatriation. This could provoke controversial debates and bitter political divides. Radicalization within key Atlantic allies does not serve American interests, and similar pressures may arise in Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon. What just transpired in Syria is far from a purely local matter. These tectonic shifts in the region carry global ramifications. The fall of Assad offers a potentially significant win for the U.S. and the West, but only if Washington crafts a foreign policy capable of securing that victory. READ MORE: Approach Syria With a Tragic Mind Ukraine and Syria: Biden’s Leftover Wars Ukraine Policy: the Big Win The post The End of the Assad Dictatorship: What This Means for Western Security appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.