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Foreign Affairs Trump, Zelensky and Putin: Who’s Happy and Who’s Not The election of Donald Trump signals a sea change in Ukraine. Credit: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump consistently promised to end the war in Ukraine before he even took office and said he would do it in one day.  That campaign promise surely terrifies Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and cautiously encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin. But beyond the obvious responses, their hopes and calculations are far more complicated and nuanced. Publicly, Putin said he preferred Biden. He said that Biden is “a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician.” In Zelensky’s and Putin’s calculations, it all comes down to that predictability. An increasingly desperate Zelensky who is seeking to break through the status quo is angrily frustrated by Biden’s predictability and willing to take a chance on the mercurial Trump. An increasingly confident Putin can cautiously trust that, though his calibrations for doing so are precarious and irresponsible, Biden has attempted to prevent the war from escalating while having trepidations about the capricious Trump. Of the three candidates—Biden, Harris and Trump—Putin viewed Biden as the most “old-style politician” who still remembers the deterrence of nuclear weapons. Putin has at least twice said that “Biden is a more preferable president for Russia.” When Biden “was removed from the race,” Putin, half jokingly, said he would accept Biden’s endorsement of Harris and “support her.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that Russia has “no preferences.” He says that Russia is not interested in the person but in the policy and that whichever person “wins the election, we do not see any prospect for a change in the U.S.’s Russophobic stance.” But Putin may feel more comfortable with the more predictable Biden. Zelensky may be less enthused by that predictability. Biden has attempted to balance giving Ukraine what it asks for with the risk of escalating to the point of a Russia–NATO war. Zelensky was angered by the Biden administration’s refusal to green light strikes deep inside Russian territory with Western supplied long-range missiles. The Economist reports that, privately, Zelensky’s staff “have become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as the Biden administration’s ‘self-deterrence’, the habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis, and a growing gap between the rhetoric of ‘standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes’ and actions that suggest the opposite.” That predictability has led to “many senior officials… hoping for a Donald Trump victory.” The predictability that Putin values is the very predictability that has come to infuriate Zelensky. Zelensky has become increasingly angry and disillusioned with Biden. The Washington Post reports that Ukrainian officials have become increasingly critical of the Biden administration. The relationship has soured, and Zelensky may harbor hope “that a change in power in Washington could work to Kiev’s advantage.” That change in power could be less tantalizing to Putin than expected. Putin remembers that Trump imposed sanctions on Russia that exceeded sanctions imposed during the Cold War. Lavrov recently reminded an interviewer that “at one point, the Trump administration imposed the highest number of sanctions against Russia compared to its predecessors.” Trump once boasted: “There’s never been a president as tough on Russia as I have been.” A Russian diplomat who deals with U.S. relations called the first Trump term “the worst four years of our lives.” Putin remembers that it was Trump, not Biden, who first started arming Ukraine to the teeth and creating an anti-Russia bridgehead on Russia’s border. Anatol Lieven has recently pointed out that, amongst the Russian establishment, there is a profound distrust of Trump.  Though Zelensky surely dreads an administration that features a president who campaigned on promises of ending the war and a vice president who has opposed aid packages to Ukraine and proposed a diplomatic settlement that deprives Ukraine of both NATO and territory, his position on Trump may be as nuanced as his position on Putin. Zelensky has grown increasingly frustrated and unhappy with Biden. He knows what to expect from the “predictable” president. With Ukraine facing defeat, and the United States still refusing long-range strikes into Russia, Zelensky may prefer to roll the dice with an unpredictable president. And the same Trump campaign promise that is unwelcome to Zelensky’s hopes for winning the war, may be just what he needs for losing it. The possibility of Trump conditioning aid to Ukraine on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate provides Zelensky with a way out of the war. Biden rejected the military requests outlined in Zelensky’s Ukrainian Victory Plan, then Trump threatened to withhold any aid unless Ukraine negotiates a diplomatic end to the war. Having been betrayed by the U.S. on the promise of whatever you need for as long as you need it, Zelensky can tell the people of Ukraine that, without the promised support from the West, it is impossible for Ukraine to continue the war against Russia. He can realistically say that Trump has forced him into negotiations. With Trump in office, Zelensky has an answer to the question of why he chose to fight on when a diplomatic settlement was within reach in the first days of the war only now to negotiate a more painful peace at the cost of so much life and land: Trump left him no choice. Though Putin is surely encouraged by Trump’s election and Zelensky is surely terrified by it, their practical calculations may be more complicated and nuanced. The post Trump, Zelensky and Putin: Who’s Happy and Who’s Not appeared first on The American Conservative.

Politics Biden Gets the Last Laugh Democrats rue the day they crossed Sleepy Joe. President Joe Biden hadn’t looked this happy in months. Only days after President-elect Donald Trump delivered one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the United States, Biden and Trump sat comfortably next to a roaring fire in the White House. And they were smiling.  “Welcome back,” Biden told Trump in a congratulatory tone. “I’m looking forward to having, like we said, a smooth transition.” Trump flashed his trademark smile and thanked Biden for what could only be described as an olive branch from the 46th president. The scene was nothing like that which greeted Trump when he visited with President Barack Obama at the White House in 2016. While Obama had appeared glum and muted, Biden had the look of a man who had just reconnected with an old friend.  The reviews across ? agreed—Biden appeared jubilant as he sat across from the man his party repeatedly labeled Hitler redux. One viral AI meme showed the two sharing ice cream and riding on a tandem motorbike. Another overlayed a grinning Biden atop an Election Day map which showed the United States blanketed in red.  The former adversaries spent the better part of their two-hour meeting amicably chatting and smiling for White House photographers. When it was all said and done, Trump posed with Biden and First Lady Jill Biden. Everyone wore the knowing grin of a job well done. However much the two men may still disagree politically, there was one thing they could finally agree on—at least Harris and her team of backstabbers wouldn’t be occupying the big house on Pennsylvania Avenue.  You don’t have to like Biden to recognize that the Democrats, and Harris specifically, did him dirty. Instead of allowing Biden to exit the stage on his own terms, he was sent in front of the American people like a lamb to the slaughter and made a spectacle of at his first and only debate with Trump this cycle. In one brutal exchange that will forever symbolize the ghost years of Biden’s presidency, the 81-year-old completely lost track of his thoughts, stumbling to an incomprehensible conclusion.  “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump responded. “I don’t think he knows what he said either.” The truth had been laid bare for the entire country to see. Biden was a shell of his former self during the June debate. His lackeys had spent the better part of four years gaslighting anyone who dared to point out the obvious, but the obvious was suddenly undeniable. There was no turning back.  The Democrat elite unceremoniously dumped Biden (who by all accounts fought to the bitter end) and installed a woman who had never won anything outside the soft, blue belly of America’s most liberal state. They paid for it dearly, as Vice President Kamala Harris was soundly defeated on Election Day. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who at 84 just announced her reelection bid, acknowledged this week that the Democratic Party mucked the Election by refusing to stage a fair and open presidential primary when it became clear Biden was cooked.  Those who followed the final months of Biden’s shadow presidency noticed an unmistakable change in his tone and tenor toward Trump. On the anniversary of September 11, Biden visited a Volunteer Fire Department in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. When an audience member implored him to wear a Trump 2024 hat, Biden cracked a grin, grabbed the ball cap, and placed it atop his head. Though White House staff were quick to dismiss the stunt, the fact it occurred the morning after Trump’s only debate with Harris left little doubt in the minds of those following the ebbs and flows of the race that this was personal. Here was Biden at his most ruthless, giving a giant F-U to the establishment, eking out whatever sweet revenge he could against the coup plotters. As Election Day approached, the Harris camp went out of its way to distance itself physically from Biden. Though Harris kept much of the same troubling platform that had sunken Biden’s approval numbers, her team waved off every attempt by the president to join her on the campaign trail. Given what now appears to be the inevitable results of the race, it was a cold shoulder not required. But she gave it anyway.  And though it’s difficult to reason that Biden’s support on the campaign trail would have affected the race in any meaningful way, his presence would have at least signaled a cohesive brand to Democratic voters. Instead, Harris ditched the Bidens and went it alone. The party, already fractured, only became more unglued as Harris failed to find footing on the national stage.  As the dust settled in the wee morning hours of Wednesday, November 6, one could easily imagine Joe and Jill cackling as the results rolled in. The party that abandoned them had suffered greatly at the ballot box. Harris made a mockery of the Bidens, and now America made a mockery of her. All over the country, Americans roundly rejected the cackler from San Francisco. Unburdened by what had been, Biden got the last laugh.  The post Biden Gets the Last Laugh appeared first on The American Conservative.