Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election for the first time since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. “Donald Trump has a 52% chance of winning, according to the Decision Desk HQ forecast,” Decision Desk HQ stated. Donald Trump has a 52% chance of winning, according to the Decision Desk HQ forecast. pic.twitter.com/6SZeT2IazI — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 21, 2024 A closer look: Republicans are also projected to win majorities in both houses of Congress. From Decision Desk HQ: Donald Trump is now a slight favorite to win the 2024 presidential race, though the outcome remains a tossup. The former Republican president has gained a lead in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, adding to his existing advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, polling in the seven key battleground states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction. These states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number. Republicans maintain their advantage in our forecast to win majorities in both houses of Congress. Following reporting of third-quarter fundraising reports our model gives the GOP a 71% chance of a majority in the Senate and a 54% chance of retaining control of the House. In the Senate, our forecast favors the GOP to flip two Democratic seats (Montana and West Virginia) and one Democratic held seat as a Tossup (Ohio). Democrats are not favored to flip and GOP seats. Our House Forecast rates 16 seats as Tossups (with 8 slightly favoring the GOP and 8 slightly favoring Democrats. Another 12 seats are rated as Lean (7 favoring the GOP and 5 favoring Democrats). BREAKING: Trump has FLIPPED the Decision Desk HQ election model for the first time since Kamala Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/0n5NiBwW3s — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024 thehill-dot-com's Decision Desk tips for Trump. Supposedly for the first time all year. pic.twitter.com/lhbqONLs5E — Brad R. Torgersen (@BradRTorgersen) October 21, 2024 The Hill reports: Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning between approximately 54 percent and 56 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent. On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage Oct. 20. The shift in election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Of the seven swing states seen as decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its polling average.