Voter registration in Pennsylvania for the upcoming general election has closed and Republicans have hit a historic milestone. For the first time in 52 years, the statewide voter registration advantage held by Democrats has fallen below 300,000 registered voters — specifically to 297,824 voters. This remarkable shift holds potential major national ramifications for which party’s nominee wins the White House on Nov. 5. For context, Democrats in Penn’s woods once enjoyed a 1.1 million voter registration advantage, but that margin has consistently declined, with the drop accelerating this year. Not only did the GOP out-register Democrats in new voters, but also held an almost two to one advantage in party switches.  Democrats performed better following the coup that replaced President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris, but the resultant “joy” failed to slow the Republican voter registration trend. The GOP continued to steadily make gains up to the Oct. 21 voter registration deadline. (RELATED: Report From Pennsylvania: Part Two) In 2020, Democrats held a 685,818 voter registration advantage over Republicans. President Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania and won its 19 Electoral College votes by just 81,660 ballots. The GOP has cut the Democrats’ voter registration lead by 387,994 voters in the intervening four years. Pennsylvania polling has consistently shown the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to be a dead heat. In just the past week, two polls have shown Republican challenger David McCormick slightly edging incumbent U.S. Senator Robert P. Casey Jr., prompting the Cook Political Report to move the race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” A McCormick victory over Casey could be critical to Republicans securing a Senate majority. Drilling down into the voter registration numbers in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, we find three counties have flipped from blue to red in recent months. No counties flipped red to blue. Bucks County is one of the four so-called “collar counties” outside of Philadelphia that in recent decades have gone from being solidly Republican to heavily Democrat. These counties, along with Philadelphia and Allegheny counties (home counties of the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh), are the most populous counties in the state and propelled the Biden win in 2020. That Republicans have reclaimed their registration lead in Bucks County is a major reversal of the recent Democratic trend. Likewise, Luzerne County in northwestern Pennsylvania is a bellwether county that for decades was solidly Democrat. Located near Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Luzerne County has been trending Republican in recent years and completed the journey to a Republican majority county just last month. Also continuing this Republican trend, this time in southwestern Pennsylvania, is Beaver County, which lies just northwest of Pittsburgh. A longtime heart and symbol of steel country and the Rustbelt, Beaver follows former Democrat bastions Westmoreland, Washington, Fayette, and Greene counties in moving into the Republican column. All of those counties (all in southwestern Pennsylvania) experienced an upsurge in Republican registration this year. Then there is Allegheny County, which includes the city of Pittsburgh. In the last week of the registration period, Allegheny County had the single largest total Republican increase of the voter registration period, followed by Philadelphia and Montgomery counties in southeastern Pennsylvania.  Voter registration is a leading indicator of trends and momentum. Another indicator is mail-in ballot requests. In that category as well, Democrats are falling behind. In both 2020 and 2022, Democrats far outpaced Republicans in mail-in voting. This year, however, the number of Democrat mail-in ballot requests significantly lags the number of requests at this point four years ago. (RELATED: Report From Pennsylvania: Part One) Republicans opposed mail-in voting in 2020, but this time they have made a major push for mail-in votes, especially from low-propensity voters. As a result, while Democrats still lead in mail-in ballot requests, the margin between the two competing parties has been substantially reduced. With polls virtually tied for Trump versus Harris, voter turnout will be the key to victory. The GOP in Pennsylvania has succeeded in becoming more competitive in both voter registration and mail-in voting. The question now is whether those gains translate into victory for Republicans on November 5. Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org. READ MORE from Lowman S. 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