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Trump Will Win (Probably)
The polls are showing that the presidential election is tied between Harris and Trump. According to famed pollster Nate Silver, polling data shows the race could go either way, but that Trump is slightly more likely to win on Nov. 5. He claims that the trouble with getting accurate polling data is that Trump supporters are suffering from the shy voter theory. And those left-leaning are suffering from the Bradley effect or Hillary effect (dealers choice on which one).
The so-called Bradley effect — named after the former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, who was running for California governor in 1982 and underperformed in the polls — is due to voters to answering pollsters as undecided rather than admit they wouldn’t vote for a Black candidate. Or, it could be the Hillary effect — the same principle, only substitute female for Black.
However, the Bradley effect is a myth. If true, Bradley also would have underperformed in the polls during his previous five winning campaigns for mayor of Los Angeles. The reality is that Bradley “won” on election day, but ultimately lost once the avalanche of postmarked absentee ballots were counted. At the time, California had recently changed the law to allow absentee ballots for any reason. In a curious reversal from what we see now on Election Day, Democrats hadn’t adapted to the new voting options, but Republicans heavily funded an absentee ballot drive. The defective statewide Field Poll not only missed the impact of minor party candidates on the race, but even more importantly it did not poll absentee ballot voters. Therefore, Bradley did’t lose because he was Black. He lost because the Republicans had a better campaign strategy and the pollsters did not incorporate the absentee voters into their metrics.
The Bradley or Hillary Effect in the 2024 Presidential Election
There are a number of characteristics about a candidate that help to decide votes — not just race or gender. In the 2012 presidential race, far more Americans found Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion a deal breaker than Barack Obama’s Black status. Given the victimhood ethos now, if Trump wins, Harris supporters will cite her gender as being the reason. This will be even more ironic considering her supporters cannot define a woman. Or, they will claim she lost because she is Black — though more Americans voted for Obama because he is Black than voted against him because of his race.
Hillary Clinton did not lose to Donald Trump because she is a woman. She lost because she is Hillary. Her hubris led her campaign in the final weeks to stop polling and limited spending in battleground states. On the other side, Trump’s campaign, in a final Hail Mary play, heavily funded efforts in those states that resulted in narrow victories and all of their electoral votes.
If Harris loses, the complicit media will not blame her, but men — white, black, and Hispanic. Kamala might blame Doug’s nanny, who he impregnated, or his former girlfriend, who he accused of having slapped in public. Unlike a former drug addict who knows when he reaches rock bottom, “Because I ran out of people to blame,” there are a myriad of people to blame for her potential loss.
Back in 2020, Harris was the first to drop out of the Democratic primary. Back then, just as now, no party delegate ever voted for her nomination to be the Democrat presidential candidate. Contrary to what Michelle Obama recently claimed at a campaign stop in Michigan, Kamala Harris is not being held to a higher standard, but a lower one. She has not earned her nomination through the support and endorsement of her fellow Democrats. She was crowned as the party’s nominee because she is a Black woman. Does anyone really think that if her running mate, Tim Walz, were Biden’s vice president that he would be the party’s nominee?
There Are No “Undecideds” This Election
We’re always told that whoever can get enough of their supporters off the couch and into the voting booth will decide the election — and those undecided will remain home. Now, there are few, if any, undecided voters. Even reluctant voters have reacted to the cognitive dissonance occurring in this presidential election.
Trump “lost” the presidential debate to Harris, but also “won.” Harris came across as scripted, slick, and inauthentic, the debate a precursor to the Saturday Night Live parody of her trademark nonresponse, “I come from the middle class.” But, as one Politico headline read, “Trump’s Improv Stood No Chance Against Harris’ Coached Attacks.” (READ MORE: A Memo to Donald Trump Before the Debate)
In the past, the old ACLU would have criticized the egregious prosecutorial overreach being executed against Trump. This lawfare onslaught against Trump should have doomed him. Instead, that first debate doomed Biden. Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, and their co-conspirators who prate about democracy, seamlessly replaced the sitting president in a weekend coup. But the resulting media spin enabled Harris to morph from a giggling political hack to the candidate of “joy.” Can you be the candidate for “joy” if your administration’s legacy contains neither peace nor prosperity, elements necessary for joy?
Trump may have credibility problems, but Harris has her own. She has constantly extolled the efficacy of “Bidenomics,” but everyday consumers see with their own eyes the price going up on everything — from food stuffs to insurance. Her numerous policy flip-flop schtick — delivered through surrogates — worked, until it didn’t. And chronic giggler Harris now faults Trump as the “unserious” one. (RELATED: Kamala Harris Flunked the Job Interviews)
Two-thirds of all voters say the country is on the wrong track. Almost every citizen has been forced into support for one candidate or the other based on the things they see in their daily lives or on their screens. As it now stands, neither Trump nor Harris seek to persuade the few remaining undecided voters; instead, they are focusing on getting their believers to the polls.
Subtle Clues of Uncertainty
Meanwhile, the continued blatant media drive to gut Trump offends viewers. CNN is still pealing the bell about the Trump impeachments and the supposed Jan. 6 insurrection — giving a platform for the faux Republican Liz Cheney, who hopes for a political resurrection in a Harris cabinet.
In my area, the Los Angeles Times, formerly a newspaper but now an anti-Trump newsletter, nonetheless makes no endorsement. Its owner deems Harris insufficiently solicitous of Hamas. And if Trump is so dangerous, why does the Washington Post not endorse?
Voters seem to interpret the serial persecutions of Trump as a Stalinist crusade. The superfluous indictments coated Trump with teflon. And then, given Trump’s gutsy reaction to an assassination attempt that drew blood, the previously unsympathetic Trump is seen as a heroic Rocky who — despite a deck stacked against him — can triumph. Americans go for the underdog.
For the majority of the electorate, the true definition of fascism remains a mystery. Few voters understand that the Nazi acronym stands for national socialist. They don’t realize that the current regulatory state is more closely related to fascism than the guy with orange hair. Along her campaign stops, Harris moves from the “politics of joy” to screeching that Trump is a fascist because he held a rally in Madison Square Garden?!? The hyperbole, red meat for her base, could backfire. Trump is attacked and name-called so much, so often, with the proverbial “everything but the kitchen sink,” that many voters tune out — especially to the hysteria. (RELATED: Whoever Yells ‘Fascist’ First Loses)
Trump’s flaws are known and exposed and long baked in the minds of the voters. They’ve digested and reconciled themselves to these oft repeated defects.
For her part, Harris couldn’t figure out who she was and tried to pander to everyone. She started out thinking she had to show loyalty to Biden, but this only resonated with the choir of her Democrat Trump-hating base. She needed to throw Biden under the bus to convince the undecided. She never was able to articulate how she differed from Biden, other than gender. And, in her political party, even that is up for debate.
The lingering undercurrent of her campaign is Biden’s dysfunction, if not actual dementia. What did she know and when did she know it? Her team prepared her for esoteric but not basic questions. She could not articulate why she is running and what her first actions would be as president.
She is not deft enough to thread the needle on foreign policy either. Although she claims to back Israel, she supported direct and indirect funding and aid for Iran, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas. Privately and publicly, she has worked to undermine Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Israel Defense Forces. Though she implicitly, if not explicitly, accuses Israel of genocide, that’s not enough for the antisemites in Michigan. As a result, Harris has lost voter support among Jews and Arabs.
The strategy of haranguing your traditional Democrat base isn’t working either. Obama, who wanted Biden replaced but not with Harris and thus was last on board for her, now reprimands Black males that support Trump. This strategy is backfiring since it is patronizing. Kamala and her surrogates all come across as angry. The strident and desperate Harris now speaks and acts unhinged — that was supposed to be Trump’s defining characteristic. Expect a reversal in demeanor again before November 5. She will close out the race in positive “vision” mode. Voters are already dizzy.
Early Voting and the Polls
Another positive indication for Trump — his voters are voting early, in contrast to 2020 when he imprudently urged his voters to wait. Current pollsters do not separately poll those who voted absentee or otherwise early and then extrapolate these numbers into an updated voter model. If that were the case, such polling would also indicate the actual loyalty rates among Republicans and defection rates among Democrats. It would also disclose how the pivotal independent voters are trending.
I have found a few things in recent polling that look good for a Trump win:
National and battleground polls confirm a close race with movement toward Trump.
Apples-and-apples comparisons confirm this trend because, regardless of methodology, each pollster’s modus operandi is constant.
The national polls show Harris and Trump roughly even. We would need to see a 2- to 4-point lead for Harris to imply an Electoral College victory, because national polling is weighted toward the large electoral states — California and New York.
The Harris favorable/unfavorable rating no longer tops Trump’s rating.
If a voter switches, it’s more likely Harris to Trump than Trump to Harris.
Third-party candidates are more likely to cut into Harris than Trump.
Some U.S. Senate Democrat candidates in key states are now straying from Harris because their own polls likely show Trump gaining.
Don’t be seduced by the margin of error. Assuming a properly drawn and executed sample, the probability is higher that the results are correct than that they are off by the margin of error. That’s a statistical measure often less important than non-sampling error. Critical is the definition of the voter universe, which often relies partly on past voter behavior. But the Trump strategy targets an enlarged universe of low-propensity voters and new voters.
All of this is encouraging because if you are, say a Black male pondering whether to vote for Trump, and polls show Black males moving toward Trump with even CNN explaining why, it’s then OK for you to vote Trump. More generally, the published polls showing Trump gaining can become a self-fulfilling prophecy — giving permission and encouragement for wavering or lean-Trump voters to turn out to the polling stations for him.
Trump, in national and battleground state polling, has consistently polled ahead of his numbers at the same point in 2016 and 2020. And Trump usually outperforms polling in part due to the shy voter theory — his voters not responding at all to pollsters or simply stating they are “undecided.”
A Trump victory is hardly certain, especially if Harris, with a big money advantage, diverts her redundant advertising spending to voter turnout. But if Trump merely approaches parity in the popular vote, he could run the Electoral College table in the battleground states, creating an electoral landslide.
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The Best Possible Outcome for Democrats: A Trump Win
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