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Politics Trump and Sheinbaum Face Off The Mexican president’s call with the president-elect proves the U.S. holds the higher ground. After a sharp skirmish over tariffs and immigration, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum called President-elect Donald Trump to discuss future relations between the two countries. Both came out claiming victory: Trump, by noting Sheinbaum’s assurance that the Mexican government would move to stop the migrant caravans desperately trying to reach the U.S. border before the new administration—and consequently stricter border control—arrives; Sheinbaum, by telling her public that she made no new concessions in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. Both happen to be right, but a thorough examination of the situation shows that Trump is in a good position to get what he wants from Mexico whether Sheinbaum likes it or not. It may come as a surprise to some, but Sheinbaum is correct that she did not make any new concessions to Trump by promising to stop migrant caravans on their way to the border ahead of his inauguration. The Mexican government has actually been engaged in disrupting migrant caravans in a number of ways for almost a year now. This is the result of pressure from the Biden administration, after Democrats finally realized in the lead-up to the election that their open-borders immigration policy was wildly unpopular with the public. The result was an attempt to lower the salience of the issue by reducing border crossings, including with the help of Mexico, as well as a brief attempt to pivot publicly towards being tough on the border (remember that supposedly bipartisan immigration bill?).  Unsurprisingly, voters didn’t buy it, but some of the efforts did reduce illegal immigration numbers from the ludicrous highs reached during the earlier period: the Border Patrol reported just 100,000 enforcement encounters at the southern border in September of this year, compared to over 300,000 in December of last year. Sheinbaum’s argument that she made no new concessions allows her to save face before a Mexican public that has always nurtured a strong sense of resentment towards U.S. interference in their domestic affairs (as well as a strong antipathy towards the figure of Donald Trump). Yet the reality of extant Mexican cooperation with American border enforcement is proof of the leverage all American presidents have over their Mexican counterparts. Sheinbaum may have greater ideological affinity for the Biden administration, but she is not deploying scarce Mexican resources to disrupt migrant caravans out of the goodness of her heart. The Biden administration prefers a quieter approach towards Mexican diplomacy than Trump’s blustering threats of tariffs and future economic devastation, but ultimately they are simply different techniques for employing the same weapon: American economic power in Mexico. Mexico is thoroughly dependent on the purchasing power of Americans. The vast majority of all Mexican exports flow into the United States, and four percent of the country’s GDP consists of remittances from persons living and working in the U.S. Mexico is simply not equipped to resist significant pressure from an American president determined to extract reasonable concessions from its southern neighbor, whether those pressures come quietly from a Democratic president or loudly from a Republican one. Sheinbaum will, of course, have to preserve her political capital as any politician does, and so she will speak with the opinions and prejudices of her voting base—which dislikes Trump and American meddling—in mind. But after all the rhetoric plays out, she’s perfectly aware that deals will have to be made and Mexico will have to play along with American priorities on cracking down on organized crime and immigration. As a result, the coming years will probably see many more events that look a lot like what we saw this week: both sides claiming to their political bases at home that they have kept their promises, while the results on the ground conform to the policy goals of the Trump administration. The post Trump and Sheinbaum Face Off appeared first on The American Conservative.

Politics The Donfather World leaders converge on White House South to kiss the ring. The Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau knew what he had to do. So did META founder Mark Zuckerberg. Even Argentina’s firebrand president, Javier Milei, and the wife of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed up. Onto their private planes and into their dripped-out Escalades, each person made their way to the palatial kingdom of Mar-a-Lago. And they kissed the ring.  The times, they are truly a-changing.  For Trudeau, who has hammered away at Trump the man and Trump the politician, this was a humiliation ritual. Often America’s fiercest critic, the Canuck leader bowed before our returning president with a meekness that admitted the occasion. As much as Canada likes to beat its chest in defiance of its southern bedmate, they’d be lost in their winter wonderland without our good graces.  Trudeau made the long trip south amid the president-elect’s threats to levy a 25 percent tariff on Canada should the nation’s leadership fail to crack down on the movement of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the U.S. When Trudeau informed Trump that the rumored 25 percent tariff would devastate the Canadian economy, the 47th president jokingly replied, “If Canada can’t survive without ripping off the U.S. to the tune of $100 billion a year, then maybe Canada should become the 51st state and Trudeau could become its governor.” Watching Trudeau grovel for crumbs at the foot of the replenished American table, I couldn’t help but draw parallels to the infamous scene in Francis Ford Coppola’s The Godfather when Amerigo Bonasera pleads with Don Corleone to make right what the courts will not.  “You found paradise in America,” says Marlon Brando, his jaws puffed full of cotton balls and rage. “You had a good trade, you made a good living. The police protected you and there were courts of law. So you didn’t need a friend like me. Now you come and say ‘Don Corleone, give me justice.’ But you don’t ask with respect. You don’t offer friendship. You don’t even think to call me ‘Godfather.’” Such is the uneven relationship between Trudeau and Trump, two men who have openly mocked each other over the last decade. Trudeau struck a positive chord following the recent talks, promising the two countries could move “forward in constructive ways.” Trump refrained from such niceties, preferring to stay on message: “I made it very clear that the United States will no longer sit idly by as our Citizens become victims to the scourge of this Drug Epidemic, caused mainly by the Drug Cartels, and Fentanyl pouring in from China.” Whether the icy relationship between Trump and Trudeau melts away remains to be seen, but the pair smiling and breaking bread around a candle-lit table in southern Florida served as a stunning reminder who wields true power in the Western Hemisphere.  Zuckerberg, too, clearly sees the writing on the wall. As Trump tours the country with SpaceX founder Elon Musk, watching as rockets launch and land in the great Texas sun, the 40-year-old Facebook creator from White Plains, New York has struggled to reinvent himself as the America-loving patriot he clearly wishes to be. His latest July 4th stunt, a video of him wakeboarding with an American flag in one hand and a beer in the other as “Born in the USA” thumps in the background, is about as open an admission as you’ll see from someone sorely on the outside looking in. Trump has repeatedly attacked Zuckerberg, accusing the tech titan of using his great wealth to tilt the 2020 election toward President Joe Biden. In a Trump-authored coffee table book released this year, Trump said Zuckerberg would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he conspired against him again in the 2024 election. Zuckerberg appears to have received that message, loud and clear.  “Mark was grateful for the invitation to join President Trump for dinner and the opportunity to meet with members of his team about the incoming administration,” read a statement from Meta released following the Mar-a-Lago meeting. “It’s an important time for the future of American Innovation.” For all the criticisms of Zuckerberg, and there are many, the Social Network villain has played ball with Republicans in recent years. In an August letter sent to the Republican-controlled House Judiciary Committee, Zuckerberg admitted he caved to the Biden administration who pressured his platforms to censor “misinformation” about the Covid-19 pandemic. Zuckerberg also expressed regret for Meta’s role in suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story in the lead up to the 2020 election.  “It’s since been made clear that the reporting was not Russian disinformation, and in retrospect, we shouldn’t have demoted the story,” Zuckerberg told the House Judiciary Committee in August.  Trump has, at times, suffered a rocky relationship with Israel’s Netanyahu. In the months following the 2020 election, the 47th president lashed out at Netanyahu for being, in his words, “the first person that congratulated” Biden. The presence of the prime minister’s wife at Mar-a-Lago on Friday signaled a desire by the Israelis to re-court his much-needed approval.  On that front, there should be little convincing necessary. Trump said Monday “there will be hell to pay” if Hamas operatives fail to release captives held in Gaza before he takes office. And though Trump has promised to “bring peace to the Middle East” on the campaign trail, his words may not affect events which continue to spiral out of control. On Monday, a ceasefire signed between Israel and Hezbollah was already on the brink of collapse as the two sides accused each other of violating terms.  Which makes Sara Netanyahu’s presence at Mar-a-Lago all the more telling. If the wars continue, the Israeli government will actively seek Trump’s affection.  Speaking of those who suddenly seek the 47th president’s affection, the talkers at Morning Joe also made a surprise appearance at Mar-a-Lago following Trump’s historic victory. To the great disappointment of their audience, hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski visited White House South only a few mornings after the Election for what was reported to be a friendly chat. They have suffered the consequences from their rabidly partisan audience ever since. For Argentina’s President Javier Milei, the first foreign leader to visit Trump following his November victory, the meeting must have felt destined. The two wild men of Western populism shared laughter and dance in the cozy confines of Mar-a-Lago. The pair had toppled the institutions of liberal democracy and were now enjoying the spoils.  Trump lavished praise on Argentina’s diminutive leader whose chainsaw-wielding politics has driven shock and awe through the bloated and wasteful Argentine government.  “The job you’ve done is incredible. Make Argentina Great Again, you know, MAGA. He’s a MAGA person.” In every glimpse of Mar-a-Lago, Trump is clearly basking in the warm glow of his people’s mandate as his favorite YMCA song bounces effortlessly around White House South. Surrounded by world leaders and celebrities who hang on his every word, America feels oddly and uniquely back. The post The Donfather appeared first on The American Conservative.

Politics ‘Self-Deportation’ Is Back Mitt Romney is hardly remembered as an immigration firebrand, but Donald Trump could learn from some of his 2012 proposals. Credit: a katz/Shutterstock When Mitt Romney was defeated in the 2012 presidential election, winning just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, many postmortems concluded that his rhetoric on immigration was too harsh. The Republican National Committee commissioned an autopsy afterward that famously called for immigration liberalization, including an amnesty for most illegal immigrants already in the country. The GOP smart set believed that this was the only way to diversify the party’s electoral coalition. Perhaps the most surprising critic of Romney on this front was Donald Trump. “He had a crazy policy of self deportation which was maniacal,” Trump said of Romney at the time in an interview with Newsmax. “The Democrats didn’t have a policy for dealing with illegal immigrants, but what they did have going for them is they weren’t mean-spirited about it,” Trump added. “They didn’t know what the policy was, but what they were is they were kind.” Fast forward 12 years later and Trump was elected to a second term as president with increased support from Hispanic and Asian voters while running on a platform of mass deportations. Trump’s initial nomination and election in 2016, which included calls for building a wall along the southern border, was seen as a repudiation of such reactions, including the RNC autopsy. Trump won 40 percent of Asian-Americans and 46 percent of Hispanics, according to the exit polls, beating George W. Bush’s recent high from 2004. He actually carried Hispanic men, receiving 54 percent of their votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 44 percent. Some majority-Latino counties voted Republican at the presidential level for the first time in decades. Starr County in Texas is the most heavily Hispanic county in the country. It voted for Trump, the first GOP presidential nominee to win there since the 19th century. While the numbers vary, some polls have found growing support for mass deportations as the border descended into chaos under the Biden administration. Illegal immigrants are being housed at taxpayer expense in deep-blue states far away from the border. Some of the biggest immigration-related controversies of the 2024 presidential campaign took place in Aurora, Colorado and Springfield, Ohio. Gallup found that a solid majority, 55 percent, of Americans want to reduce immigration. The venerable pollster has been tracking public opinion on this issue for quite some time and this is the largest percentage looking to decrease immigration since 2001. Only 16 percent would increase immigration levels. The border crisis has changed what the public is willing to tolerate on immigration and border security, at least for now. An underrated “root cause” of the migrant influx was that portions of the outgoing President Joe Biden’s political coalition do not believe it is legitimate for relatively wealthy, Western countries to enforce their immigration laws or borders at all. Now you have Latinos voting for a hypothetical deporter-in-chief, once an insult when used to describe either Romney or Barack Obama. Obama stepped up deportations because he wanted to build credibility on enforcement in order to pass an immigration amnesty. It did not work. He would go on to be replaced as president by Trump. Trump has come to dominate the Republican Party in as much a break with Romney as Obama. Romney will no longer even be in Washington for a second Trump term, having retired after a single term representing Utah in the Senate. But that’s not to say there’s nothing Trump can learn from Romney on the signature issue of immigration. Some level of self-deportation, encouraging illegal immigrants to return home voluntarily, will be necessary. It will also help make Trump’s deportation policy politically sustainable in the face of hostile media coverage and the inevitable removal of otherwise sympathetic people. As a senator, Romney was a big proponent of E-Verify. This enforcement tool would help dry up the jobs magnet that is a major driver of illegal immigration. Vice President–elect J.D. Vance was one of the cosponsors of the most recent version of Romney’s bill.  More broadly, targeting the unsympathetic employers of illegal immigrants would not only be a good way to deal with this issue. It would show a real change toward a more populist Republican Party that sides with workers against big businesses that seek to pay them an unfair wage.  That would be a real realignment. But it wouldn’t necessarily require a total abandonment of Romney’s Republican Party either. The post ‘Self-Deportation’ Is Back appeared first on The American Conservative.

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Democratic Party Monopoly on the Black Vote Is Over