When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime. But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults. Even as polls show that Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and the media are making it difficult to see how crime rates have changed over the last few years. The bureau — which has been at the center of partisan storms — made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. RealClearInvestigations discovered the change through a cryptic reference on the FBI website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” But there is no mention that the numbers increased. One only sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime data and comparing it to the file released last year. After the FBI released its new crime data in September, a USA Today headline read: “Violent crime dropped for third straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers. “I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.” “It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistical research organization, told RCI. The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment. Extensive revisions in violent crime stats The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 reports that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: Should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? Revised FBI data showing crime rate increaseImage source: RealClearInvestigations Without the increase, the drop in violent crime in 2023 would have been less than half as large — only 1.6% instead of the reported drop of 3.5%. The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people. The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures the bureau reports. “The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’ unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of Justice Statistics — the Department of Justice’s actual statistical agency,” says Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021. Anderson said when he headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “We definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to a rise in violent crime.” Many crimes are unreported Another problem with FBI crime data is its reliance on reported crimes. Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes brought to the police’s attention, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI only tracks reported incidents and this gap is so large, researchers argue that when the media discuss crime rates based on FBI data, they should clarify that it reflects “reported” crime, not give the impression that total crime is changing. Non-reporting of crime doesn’t affect all crimes equally. Non-reporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft, insurance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data. Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates, even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels. A half-century ago, the Justice Department provided a total crime measure, including both reported and unreported crime. The results of the department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey, released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI data. The NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal experiences. Instead of the FBI’s 3.5% drop in the reported violent crime rate in 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase in the reported violent crime rate. Even with the revised FBI numbers, in 2022, the FBI’s 4.5% increase pales in comparison to the NCVS’ 29.3% increase. FBI — Change in reported crime ratesImage source: RealClearInvestigations Over the past few years, the number of police officers has declined because of cuts in budgets and many retirements. One result is that police departments nationwide — from Charlottesville and Henrico County, Va., to Chicago, Ill., and Olympia, Wash. — are no longer responding to calls unless the perpetrator is still there actively committing the crime. Instead of police coming out to investigate and take a report, residents in those jurisdictions can still go to the police station and wait in line to get a police report filled out. In addition, despite the widespread belief that calling 911 is enough to report a crime, the FBI officially doesn’t tally 911 calls. It only counts crimes when police make out an official report. Other data shows sharper rise in crime While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large. The increases shown by the NCVS during the Biden-Harris administration are by far the largest percentage increases over any three years, slightly more than doubling the previous record. Comparing 2023 rates with 2019 pre-COVID violent crime rates, the FBI’s new 2023 data shows virtually no improvement — just a 0.2% drop — while the NCVS shows a 19% increase over that period. But the news media didn’t cover the crime survey when it was released last month. “With the media using the 2022 FBI data to tell us for a year that crime was falling, it is disappointing that there are no news articles correcting that misimpression,” Moody told RCI. “We will have to see whether the FBI later also revises the 2023 numbers.” At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in 2022 ... there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off. Even as polls show that Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and the media are making it difficult to see how crime rates have changed over the last few years. A Gallup survey late last year found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that by a 4.7-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March that “crime and violence” was Americans’ second biggest concern after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI data to try to convince people that they were wrong. “This FBI report is stunning because it now doesn’t state that violent crime in 2022 was much higher than it had previously reported, nor does it explain why the new rate is so much higher, and it issued no press release about this large revision,” said David Mustard, the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia, who researches extensively on crime. “This lack of transparency harms the FBI’s credibility.” Editor's note: This article appeared originally at RealClearInvestigations.

Everyone was confused when hunky, tatted up Josh Seiter from season 11 of “The Bachelorette” revealed via Instagram that he was actually a woman. Overnight, it seemed he went from uber masculine to a yas queen, complete with women’s clothing and heavy makeup. Five months later, Seiter shed the mini skirts and bikinis, washed the lipstick off, and revealed that it was all a big social experiment aimed at proving the absurdity of the left’s gender ideology and the role the mainstream media plays in viralizing extreme gender narratives. On Wednesday, Seiter joined Sara Gonzales on “Sara Gonzales Unfiltered” to discuss his investigation into the illogical, unhinged world of gender politics. Sara began by playing a montage of some of Seiter’s Instagram reels that featured him living as a trans woman. Some of his best videos featured him lamenting that Target doesn’t carry tuck-friendly lingerie for “large appendages,” protesting outside the DNC in a dress with a sign that read “Trans 4 Palestine” because “if [he] was in their country, they would accept [him] with open arms,” and explaining how he “adopted gender-neutral speech with [his male cat] Ollie,” who had been acting “a little more effeminate.” You’re likely reading these examples and thinking that surely people understood this was satire, but you’d be wrong. Seiter’s act fooled the majority of people on the right and the left (not Alex Stein though — he called it from the beginning that Seiter was a master troll). “Millions of people thought I was a trans woman,” Seiter confirmed. “You see it's a thin line between outrageous comedy and them ‘living their truth,’ and I think that's such a scary indictment — that it's hard to tell the difference between the two. And I think that's a good sign that what they're doing is ridiculous and deserving of ridicule,” he told Sara. “I just really wanted to expose the hypocrisy of [trans ideology] and show that anyone can claim to be a woman, but it doesn't in fact make it true, and it doesn't mean it's deserving of other people's respect,” he explained, adding that the movement is “an affront to women” and is essentially “erasing women.” While his trans Instagram life certainly produced a lot of laughter, Seiter says that was never the goal. As someone with a bachelor’s degree in sociology and a Juris Doctor degree from Chicago Kent College of Law, Seiter is no comedian. When he saw the trans movement gaining rapid speed, he began “gathering background information and doing research”; then he “drew up a hypothesis,” “tested that hypothesis ... with an experiment,” and finally looked at “the results from the experiment.” The findings “confirm my hypothesis that yes, this is all ridiculous; these people are delusional,” Seiter explained. Sara calls the ruse “absolutely brilliant.” To hear more of the interview, watch the episode above. Want more from Sara Gonzales? To enjoy more of Sara's no-holds-barred take to news and culture, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

President Donald Trump helped raise money for New York City's most vulnerable women and children Thursday evening by bashing Kamala Harris, suggesting that some of her remaining male supporters are cuckolds and insinuating that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) was a direct beneficiary of the tampons he put in boys' restrooms. Trump's humorous critique of his opponent and the Democratic Party — which had the crowd in stitches and subsequently prompted many a meltdown in the liberal media and among Harris boosters — was thematically reinforced at the 79th annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation dinner by an unlikely source: Jim Gaffigan, a left-leaning comedian who called Trump a "fascist" in 2020. Although Gaffigan made sure to poke fun at Trump, he risked the ire of his leftist peers by similarly knocking Harris — questioning her decision to blow off the event and suggesting that she became the Democratic candidate by undemocratic means. "The Democrats have been telling us Trump's re-election is a threat to democracy," said Gaffigan. "In fact, they were so concerned of this threat that they staged a coup, ousted their democratically elected incumbent, and installed Kamala Harris." Early in his speech, Trump emphasized his appreciation for the dinner, which Harris refused to attend — an event hosted by the Archdiocese of New York that he frequented with his late father, raising money for kids with special needs, foster children, low-income single mothers, and other vulnerable persons in the city. After noting that he was happy to participate in a New York event that he wasn't summoned to by subpoena, Trump unleashed on Harris, noting that her absence, which she tried to remedy with a four-minute video submission featuring former "Saturday Night Live" star Molly Shannon, was "weird" and "deeply disrespectful" — an assertion that was audibly well received by the audience, who booed her in absentia. Trump joked that Harris was likely hunting with Walz, referring to the governor's embarrassing hunting-themed photo op last weekend, or alternatively "receiving communion from Gretchen Whitmer," the Michigan governor who recently shared a video apparently mocking Catholics and the Eucharist. Echoing a previous statement from Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the organizer of the dinner, Trump pointed out that the last major party candidate not to attend the event was Democratic candidate Walter F. Mondale, who lost 49 out of 50 states, securing only 13 electoral votes in the 1984 election against Ronald Reagan. Earlier in the evening, Gaffigan said, "This event has been referred to as the Catholic Met Gala. 22% of Americans identify as Catholic. Catholics will be a key demographic in every battleground state. I'm sorry, why is Vice President Harris not here?" 'Governor Walz isn't here himself, but don't worry, he'll say that he was.' Trump, who sardonically suggested that Harris' laugh was "beautiful" and recommended keeping her husband, Doug Emhoff, away from the nannies, suggested that if the organizers of the event really wanted the vice president to accept their invitation, they should have "told her the funds were going to bail out the looters and rioters in Minneapolis and she would have been here, guaranteed." Prior to roasting some of Harris' allies, Trump suggested that the country needs new leadership, noting: We have someone in the White House who can barely talk, barely put together two coherent sentences, who seems to have mental faculties of a child. It's sad. This is a person who has nothing going, no intelligence whatsoever — but enough about Kamala Harris. Trump subsequently singled out Ross Morales Rocketto's Democratic booster group White Dudes for Harris, saying, "I'm not worried about them at all because their wives and their wives' lovers are all voting for me. Every one of those people are voting for me." After suggesting White Dudes for Harris were cuckolds, Trump roasted Harris' running mate, saying, "Unfortunately Governor Walz isn't here himself, but don't worry, he'll say that he was." "I used to say that Democrats were crazy for saying that men have periods," continued Trump. "But then I met Tim Walz." Although he acknowledged that speakers at the event customarily make some self-deprecating jokes, Trump noted there was no point taking shots at himself "when other people have been shooting at me." Trump did, however, adopt a serious tone toward the end of his speech, noting that in the wake of two known assassination attempts, he has "a fresh appreciation for how blessed we are by God's providence and His divine mercy," adding that with God's help, "there is nothing that cannot be achieved." When wrapping up his remarks, Trump noted that New York City needed the room for a "large group of illegal aliens coming in from Texas." While Trump had the crowd laughing, including longtime critics Gaffigan and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the Harris campaign tried spinning his speech as a failure. Ammar Moussa, the Harris campaign's rapid response director, claimed in a joyless statement that Trump "stumbled over his words and lashed out when the crowd wouldn't laugh with him. The rare moments he was off script, he went on long, incomprehensible rambles, reminding Americans how unstable he's become. And of course he made it all about himself." In her brief Al Smith dinner video submission, Harris went on the defense, suggesting that she would never say anything negative about Catholics despite previously suggesting the Knights of Columbus' Catholic faith disqualified them from serving as judges and introducing legislation aimed at forcing Catholic organizations to engage in activities that violate their religious beliefs. After citing a verse from the Gospel of Luke, Harris closed her video by recommitting "to reaching across divides, to seek understanding and common ground." Gaffigan responded to Harris' video saying, "As I watch that, I couldn't help but think of — now I know how my kids felt when I FaceTime into a piano recital they were at." Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

"Saturday Night Live" recently wooed comic Shane Gillis to portray former President Donald Trump on the late-night institution's 50th season — but this time around it was the short-lived cast member's turn to say "You're fired!" Gillis revealed his former employer's offer — as well as his refusal thereof — during a recent appearance at the Skankfest comedy festival in Las Vegas. In the last few years, Gillis has become known for his Trump impression. Last July he showed it off on the wildly popular comedy podcast "Kill Tony"; that episode garnered more than 20 million views on YouTube. Comedian Luis J. Gomez told the crowd, “Nobody thought [Gillis] was coming to this festival this year.” Gillis replied, "Explain why." Gomez answered, “Because he was offered to play Trump on the entire season of 'SNL' and he turned it down to f***ing be here, folks.” Gillis added, “They said, ‘Are you serious? You’re going to say no?’" Gillis joked that he told "SNL" executive producer Lorne Michaels that he had to be at the comedy festival. Almost exactly five years ago, Gillis scored his first "SNL" job offer — which was promptly rescinded just four days later after reports that Gillis had made "racist" remarks during a September 2018 episode of his "Matt and Shane's Secret Podcast." At the time, Gillis apologized to "anyone who was actually offended" and said, "I respect the decision they made. I am honestly grateful for the opportunity." Gillis was quick to rebound from his public "SNL" dismissal. Along with fellow comedian John McKeever, he created the sketch show "Gilly and Keeves," which racked up tens of millions of views and featured a sketch with Gillis portraying Trump attending a speed-dating event. In September 2021, Gillis released his very first comedy special – "Shane Gillis Live in Austin." The special has more than 33 million views on YouTube. In 2023, Gillis released his "Beautiful Dogs" special on Netflix, which introduced his impressive Trump impression to the masses. The special has a 92% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes and was the third-most-watched comedy special on Netflix. In February, Gillis got a deal with Netflix for six episodes of his self-funded comedy series titled "Tires." "Tires" boasts an 87% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and was the top show on Netflix for a couple of days. In May, Netflix announced it would renew "Tires" for a second season and air another Gillis comedy special. In the last few years, Gillis has become known for his Trump impression. Last July he showed it off on the wildly popular comedy podcast "Kill Tony"; that episode garnered more than 20 million views on YouTube. Gillis finally made it to the "SNL" stage last February, when he hosted the show — and performed as the 45th president hawking his limited-edition sneakers. In lieu of Gillis, "SNL" has comedic actor James Austin Johnson playing Trump this season. Alec Baldwin previously played the role. In September, Michaels said there was a need to "reinvent" Trump because of his performance at the presidential debate. Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!

When is the Subnautica 2 release date? A decade after the original Subnautica launched into the deep blue sea of early access, Unknown Worlds has finally revealed the hit series’ next evolution. While it promises more of the same open-water exploration we love, Subnautica 2 is finally bringing a native multiplayer experience to the table. However, just because you’ve got a few buddies to go diving with, that doesn’t mean the survival game will be any less terrifying than its predecessor. To find out all we know about the Subnautica 2 release date and what the game entails, read on. Continue reading Subnautica 2 release date window, early access, trailers, and more MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Best survival games, Best co-op games, Upcoming PC games

If you're sick of boring PC builds, you might be interested in this new RAM from memory maker TeamGroup. It's just launched two new color variants of its high-spec T-Force DDR5 RAM modules, and the pastel pink option in particular could be a must-have if you're after that cherry blossom look for your next PC. Made with gamers in mind, these TeamGroup T-Force RAM modules let you mix fun aesthetics with raw power, offering frequencies up to 7,600MHz, depending on the color choice. That makes this RAM's top speed faster than some of the best gaming RAM you can buy today, including the Kingston Fury Beast DDR5 RGB, and this T-Force duo looks great doing it, too. Continue reading You could build a gorgeous Sakura pink PC build with this new DDR5 gaming RAM MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Best graphics card, Best gaming PC, Best SSD for gaming

If you're hoping to play Dragon Age: The Veilguard but don't have a rig powerful enough to run it, Nvidia is offering a way to have your cake and eat it too! Right now, if you purchase a six-month subscription to Nvidia GeForce Now, you can get a copy of Dragon Age: The Veilguard for free. Better still, the game will be live on the cloud-based streaming service from day one. The Dragon Age: The Veilguard system requirements don't necessarily demand a cutting-edge gaming PC, but if you've been eyeing up the game and are concerned about how your system stacks up, this Nvidia offer is a great way around the problem. Not only do you get a copy of the game for free, but you'll also have access to GeForce Now for six months. Continue reading Grab Dragon Age The Veilguard for free, thanks to Nvidia MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Best RPGs, Dragon Age The Veilguard companions, Dragon Age The Veilguard release date

The developer of upcoming surrealist RPG Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 has confirmed how long the game will be after questions were raised about its initial launch price. One of my most anticipated upcoming games, ever since I took an extended look at its world and combat at Gamescom, the fantasy adventure is shaping up to be another strong turn-based contender after the success of the Persona-adjacent Metaphor ReFantazio. Now, developer Sandfall Interactive confirms the game's estimated length in response to an Amazon listing. Continue reading Clair Obscur Expedition 33 dev explains why the new RPG is so cheap MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Best RPGs, Best turn-based RPGs, Upcoming PC games

Paradox is one of the most prolific and recognizable studios in PC gaming. From Crusader Kings to Stellaris, Europa Universalis to Cities Skylines 2, it’s either developed or published some of the biggest strategy and 4X games of the modern era. Paradox Arc is the company’s more experimental, smaller budget label, responsible for the likes of robot shooter Mechabellum and upcoming industry sim Starminer. It’s also launching a new, historical city builder. Combining SimCity, Cities Skylines, and the Aztec empire, if you haven’t heard of Tlatoani, it’s snuck onto Steam with a fresh demo. Continue reading New city builder from Stellaris and Cities Skylines 2 publisher is playable now MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Best city-building games, The best survival games on PC, The best indie games

Armored Core 6: Fires of Rubicon was one of the PC gaming highlights of 2023. Coming a full decade after the last game in the series, it’s clear that developer FromSoftware had plenty of time to hone its abilities, as it improves upon its predecessors in almost every conceivable way. If you were waiting for it to go on sale before jumping in, the time has finally come, as it’s now 40% off from Humble. Continue reading Beloved mech game Armored Core 6 just hit its lowest-ever price MORE FROM PCGAMESN: Armored Core 6 bosses, Armored Core 6 parts, Armored Core 6 builds