Politics The Slow Death of the Predictive Wizards Election forecasting is undergoing a sea change, but public perceptions have not kept up. oters fill out mail-in ballots at the Board of Elections office in the Allegheny County Office Building on November 3, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) Shortly before I voted on Tuesday, I gazed at my inbox and spied a gem: “The election could come down to this email.”What sweeping technological change has occurred in the nearly quarter century since hanging chads and butterfly ballots were all the rage. For months, I have been receiving emails that this or that candidate is OUT of the race unless I donate immediately. Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi “appear” on email threads that demand my immediate attention. Kamala Harris needs me!  When I observed on social media that Donald Trump often says in his video fundraising solicitations that people should only donate if they can afford to, I received an angry response. That was my takeaway from a video in which he, quelle surprise, launches several attacks on Harris that a Democratic voter might find unfair? What about January 6? Well, I don’t know. I thought it a bit off-brand for Trump to tell prospective donors they should feed their families before they kick in money to his campaign. I also wondered if it might tell us something interesting about the type of people giving money to the Trump campaign, the small donors the GOP has become more dependent on in recent years, rather than a character reference for the former president, much less an unqualified endorsement of everything he has ever said or done. Everyone has spent the past few months indulging in the parlor game of trying to predict who will win the election. There are betting markets and models and aggregates that purport to tell you down to 0.1 percentage point who is up and who is down. The polling industry has had its problems the past few election cycles, though I think the polling miss in the midterm elections is a bit exaggerated. In a bizarro 2016, a national Republican plurality wasn’t distributed efficiently enough to maximize the party’s gains in the House, and GOP candidates blew a few close Senate races that were made to appear closer because of a spate of Republican-aligned polls. I was one of those people who thought there was going to be a red wave two years ago. But I never expected very many Republicans to win by a lot; I expected a lot of Republicans to win by a little. A wave election is really when a solid majority of the close races break one way, not necessarily a repeat of Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan’s 49-state landslides, which are not really possible in the current political climate. What happened instead was that there were seven competitive races that were going to decide control of the Senate. The six that were decided on Election Day split down the middle while the seventh went to a runoff. Democrats won that runoff for a four-to-three advantage, nudging the Senate from a tie broken by the vice president to a pure 51-49 Democratic majority. Which under Senate rules is still somewhat less than functional control of the chamber for most pieces of legislation. People are rather angry that the public polls, with the notable exception of Iowa’s Ann Selzer, and big election forecasters all converged on a more or less toss-up election. This is herding, they cried. Or perhaps it’s just what happens in a deeply polarized country when a billion dollars in ads pummel seven or so states for months at a time trying to drive up each candidate’s negatives to the stratosphere.  It’s possible that, if people were more interested in accuracy and accountability for their models and less interested in hedging or posterior-covering, we would get better models. (Though I suspect that is really only true if we paid for them, which is why everyone is always really looking for tidbits from selectively released private polls conducted by people with real skin in the game.) The reality is that the market for these things outside of campaigns is partisans who want evidence their side is going to win, which can always be found in the type of close elections we have mostly had since 2000, plus a few political junkies. The likelihood is that becoming take-committed would lead more forecasters to dupe their readers rather than build more reliable models. It would also increase public skepticism of the election results when they differ from their most trusted predictions. Some of this data simply has limited predictive value. The best local sports journalists root for the home team, but are not such homers that they will sell you on a Super Bowl title for a team more likely to go 2-15. Maybe that will happen in partisan political journalism too, but my model gives it less than a 50-50 chance. The post The Slow Death of the Predictive Wizards appeared first on The American Conservative.

Trump Secures North Carolina, Boosting Path to White House

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UTL COMMENT:- YES THIS IS AN AD FOR RED LIGHT CANCER THERAPY....BUT RECENTLY I HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING CANCER TREATMENTS AND UPLOADING ANYTHING NEW THAT I CAN FIND.......BECAUSE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MASSIVE BOOM IN CANCERS WORLDWIDE (I WONDER WHY....?) AND I WANT TO HELP PEOPLE......THERE IS SOME INTERESTING INFO IN HERE.... Jonathan Otto of MyRedLight.com discusses a powerful healing therapy that Gov't and Big Pharma have been desperately trying to hide because studies have shown how powerful it is in healing Cancers and Chronic Diseases! The world needs to know the truth that fake history has concealed. WATCH Old World Order, and find out more at: https://stewpeters.com/owo/ Become an SPN member to gain access to exclusive content and unlock premiere benefits, including personal interactions with Stew, VIP event tickets, and live giveaways.https://stewpeters.locals.com/ Check out the Stew Peters Store for all things Stew Crew merchandise and more! https://spnstore.com/ These loyal and courageous sponsors chose to stand with us despite the cancel culture backlash. Support their bravery below: Energized Health’s deep-cell hydration is the key to curing chronic pain, inflammation, and weight gain. To find out more, visit: https://www.energizedhealth.com Cortez Wealth Management makes financial planning for you and your family. Find out how you can rely on this America First financial advisory and get your retirement plan today by calling 813-448-3446 or by visiting https://cortezwm.com Don’t miss his segments Scriptures and Wallstreet on the Stew Peters Network Thursdays and Saturdays @5 pm est. Red light therapy is scientifically proven to prevent and beat cancer, autoimmune disease, thyroid disease, arthritis, dementia, and tinnitus while achieving great results with weight loss, wrinkles, acne, and stem cell regeneration. Watch medical journalist Jonathan Otto's free training and get the best at-home red light therapy devices at the lowest prices. Go to: www.myredlight.com and use the promo code STEW10 for an additional 10% off your order! Please support your child’s natural immunity as we send them back into the school year with Z-Spike Gummies and use code SPN for buy one get one 15% off at: www.zstacklife.com/spn Head to https://bioptimizers.com/stewpeters and use promo code stewpeters to get your MassZymes with 10% off. Your future self will thank you! Want to know if your smartphone is truly secure? Join me at their free webinar: “Hidden Signs Your Phone is Compromised” by visiting https://abovephone.com/stewpeters/ to reserve your spot. Space is limited, so don’t wait! November 19th at 2 PM CST,60 minutes will change your life, and it is 100% free. Watch this Trailer https://cloud.above.run/f/754c0a64fa1a4f588c3b/?dl=1 and then spread the word. Can't make it live? Register anyway, and we'll send you the recording. Don’t miss your chance to own this one-of-a-kind Holocaust encyclopedia. You can get yours by visiting http://holocaustencyclopedia.com/ or at https://armreg.co.uk/product/holocaust-encyclopedia/ using promo code “stewlikesbooks” for 15% off your order.

David Straight. CPS (Child Prostitution Services) Source: Lina - ICE: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/b7jcf6GCuZkB

Spain destroyed more than 256 dams between 2021 and 2022, "to restore the natural course of rivers.....in order to comply with UN Agenda 2030. But no, the flooding is a result of "climate change" ????? This is happening all over Europe. This has caused flooding in the agricultural area of ​​Spain and will increase food prices even more. and of course food shortages will occur. something that the United Nations, the WEF and the NWO also want. Whoever controls the food, controls the people. They want the big companies to take over food production, who then work together with the government. The ultimate goal is to make everyone dependent on the government, that the people accept a digital ID and then the social credit system is introduced. UTL COMMENT:- No-one, I repeat no-one could ever tell me that this wasn't planned!!!! They knew EXACTLY what they were doing!!!!!! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: "mijnnaamisrepelsteeltje" https://old.bitchute.com/video/4XnXsnNQajaW/

THE WHITE RABBIT - AUSTRALIAN GOVTS UNCONSCIONABLE CONDUCT UTL COMMENT:- People of the world we need to forget our political differences (the Left-Right paradigm) and do what's BEST for your country!! Not what's left or right! We need to unite together as one or we have no chance, the very reason they are trying so hard to keep us divided arguing over trivial nonsense. With thanks to THE WHITE RABBIT:- https://rumble.com/user/THEWHITERABBITAUSTRALIA

Becca is a vax injured nurse from Canada. Today we hear about her story, and the stories of her Vax injured friends who, seeing how they are receiving no help from the Government, are choosing Euthanasia instead (MAIDS) to escape the pain and the sadness. UTL COMMENT:- How sad. This is EXACTLY what they wanted.......... With BIG thanks to CAFE LOCKED OUT https://rumble.com/c/Cafelockedout Join our mailing list here https://cafelockedout.com/ Join CLO.Social To support our work with a one-off gift https://cafelockedout.com/donate To be a valued supporter, you can join our Patreon here https://www.patreon.com/c/cafelockedout KULTURE To listen to and support Kulture Artists go to https://cafelockedout.com/kulture/ If you have a story or interview suggestion Contact us here Cafelockedout@gmail.com

This story brings a whole new meaning to the word friendship. In October 2020, the middle schoolers of Rye Junior High, in Rye, New Hampshire, bid a bon voyage to their handmade mini-boat, which set sail off the coast of New Hampshire to who-knows-where. Measuring only 5.5 feet, the “Rye Riptides” was indeed a small ship. It ran crewless, but carried a bountiful cargo of colorful artwork made by students, along with a GPS tracking device that reported the boat’s location … sometimes. Cut to 462 days and 8,300 miles later, and what started out as a simple science project became a surprise discovery for some Norwegian sixth graders, and a fun new connection across the Atlantic. Rye Junior High had partnered with Educational Passages, a nonprofit organization that aims to connect students around the world to the ocean and each other. Once the kit arrived, the kids started building while learning about ocean currents, science and math. However, science teacher Sheila Adams shares that the more artistic, right-brained activities equally found their way into the curriculum. “The students needed to use their writing skills to inform others about their mini-boat project, describe our school and town to people of other languages, just in case, and write requests to get the boat deployed,” she said in a release.…not me feeling jealous of some middle schoolers right now… COVID-19 nearly threatened to knock the Rye Riptides off its course. The boat had been constructed, but not yet decorated, when students were moved to taking class online. Then, there was the matter of launching the boat. Which Cassie Stymiest, director of Educational Passages, noted was “challenging with all the restrictions in place.” Luckily, creativity, resourcefulness and a little technology saved the day. Working remotely, each piece of art was done at home, then scanned, printed and made into a collage. Then, Ms. Stymiest connected with the Sea Education Association (SEA), which set the Rye Riptides on its journey. Seriously, my inner child is geeking out with this stuff. Would the boat make it to Europe? Rye student Solstice Reed wasn’t so sure. “Honestly, I thought it would sink,” she admitted to the Portsmouth Herald. Considering the boat was cruising the ocean waters during hurricane season, the skepticism was well-founded. During the more tumultuous periods, the GPS signal only came in intermittently. And for a long while, there was nothing but radio silence.But then, at long last, on the small Norwegian island of Smøla, the Rye Riptides successfully made it to dry land. Sure, it was a bit dismantled and covered in barnacles, but inside, all the adorable trinkets remained intact. The Smøla students peered with wonder into their bounty of photos, signed facemasks, fall leaves, acorns and state quarters, gifts sent out almost two years ago. The voyage of the small boat has gone viral in a big way, sailing across social media, and making headlines. And now, Educational Passages plans on facilitating video meet-ups between Rye Junior High and the school in Norway, “to continue building this new relationship to learn from each other and about the shared Atlantic Ocean between them.” Plus, NPR reports, the students of Smøla would be writing a letter to their new American friends. Human connection found its way across the sea in the most wholesome and magical way. It’s really cool to see that educational programs like this exist, impacting both the hearts and minds of young students. Mission, successful. This article originally appeared on 2.22.22